“The commander of the occupying American forces in Afghanistan Gen. Miller admitted during an interview with CNN that they won’t achieve a military victory in Afghanistan”
Afghanistan: Taliban’s Intelligence and the intimidation marketing campaign
Report by Dr. Antonio Giustozzi for Landinfo
Taliban’s intelligence buildings have advanced over time to turn into increasingly refined. Nevertheless, the Taliban’s inner division have additionally affected the functioning of the Taliban’s intelligence, regardless of efforts to coordinate and synchronise it amongst the totally different Shuras of the Taliban. Taliban intelligence operations have now a really large protection, though the high quality of the info provided to the Taliban management isn’t all the time excellent. One of the fundamental duties of the Taliban’s intelligence is to allow the Taliban’s intimidation marketing campaign towards ‘collaborators’ of the Kabul authorities and different enemies of the Taliban. The intent of the Taliban management appears to be to keep away from arbitrary violence as a lot as potential and to focus efforts towards people successfully against the Taliban, on the foundation of a transparent set of guidelines. These guidelines are usually not all the time revered, however the management appears to be making a real effort.
STRUCTURE AND ORGANIZATION
Earlier than the intelligence ‘departments’ have been established, it was the models on the floor who have been dealing with intelligence instantly: shadow governors, fronts and teams all had individuals tasked to do intelligence work; the intelligence cadres of the numerous models have been subsumed into the new division of intelligence when it was created.1 This technique was inefficient and wasteful and as the menace to the Taliban elevated with the deployment of ISAF to the provinces from 2006 onwards, the want for a reform turned self-evident. Over the years subsequently Taliban intelligence was professionalised, with the formation of devoted buildings and rising budgets. From 2006 onwards, one after the other, the numerous Shuras of the Taliban began establishing devoted intelligence departments, principally inside their army commissions. Devoted coaching programs for intelligence employees have been arrange and progressively improved, with the help of overseas advisers from each different jihadist organisations and from authorities businesses supportive of the Taliban effort.
The Taliban spies are a mixture of former fighters, recent madrasa recruits, and villagers. They could possibly be shopkeepers, drivers, authorities officers, authorities employees, beggars, and so on.5 Aside from a quantity of everlasting staff appearing as skilled spies, the Taliban additionally depend on mercenary informers paid advert hoc for the info they supply. As a result of of their mutual agreements, every intelligence division can solely use mercenary informers in the areas of duty of the different intelligence departments, not any everlasting employees.6 Paid informers are often properly positioned people who can promote categorized details about goal organisations and buildings. Particularly, the Taliban recruit informers at excessive ranges of authorities, together with military, police and NDS.7 Sources in the Taliban’s intelligence departments claimed in 2015 to have a complete of virtually 900 informers inside the Afghan safety forces and the authorities equipment. Of those, 150 have been claimed by the Haqqani community alone in Kabul. Aside from being paid for the info they supply, these informers have been additionally granted immunity from the Taliban’s concentrating on (that’s they’re taken off the blacklist).eight
The Taliban’s intelligence faucets into the help networks, who often present info free of charge. Info feeds into the intelligence departments from all types of Taliban members and sympathisers.9 Often these unpaid informers are the supply for primary intelligence, reminiscent of new arrivals or departures from the village, suspicious behaviour of people, breach of Taliban guidelines, damaging commentary on Taliban, recruitment of people into the safety forces, and so on.
Based on a Taliban decide, the intelligence equipment counted in 2016 a everlasting employees of over 5,300 individuals nationwide, excluding the Rasool Shura and all mercenary informers.10
Focused killings are comparatively simply measurable and has clearly escalated dramatically over the years in retaliation of ISAF’s ‘night raids’, with elevated concentrating on of civilians.
Taliban intimidation and concentrating on effort is especially depending on Taliban’s intelligence efforts. It must be stored in thoughts, nevertheless, that intimidation and concentrating on is just one of many duties that the intelligence departments have. Taliban interviewees describe the duties of the intelligence departments as to work for all branches of the Taliban, laying the floor for forthcoming operations and stopping threats from the enemy, together with by detecting enemy informers. Additionally they examine suspect authorities collaborators and selects targets for the Taliban’s blacklist for incorporation in the hit lists (which is a sub-set of the blacklist, together with blacklisted individuals cleared for execution).
Over the years the Taliban have constructed a classy intelligence construction, all collectively using virtually 6,000 educated employees if we additionally embrace the Rasool Shura, in addition to giant quantity of paid and unpaid informers. Nevertheless, the improvement of Taliban intelligence has at the similar time been negatively affected by rising Taliban fragmentation. With the exception of Rasool’s Shura, different Taliban elements have managed to work out a system for the change of info, in order that the Taliban intimidation and concentrating on system continues to perform as a nationwide entity, even when not essentially all the time in a clean approach.
The Taliban intimidation and concentrating on effort has in all probability reached its peak, until American presence in Afghanistan goes to surge considerably once more. The strategic significance of intimidation and concentrating on has declined as a result of now the Taliban consider they will win an outright confrontation with the armed forces of Kabul, and they’re channelling increasingly more assets in the direction of their semi-regular, cellular forces. The overall notion in Afghanistan is of an erosion of authorities affect to the Taliban’s benefit, a incontrovertible fact that reduces the want for intimidation techniques. The federal government has additionally pulled out of many rural areas, the place the Taliban at the moment are in management.
Government officers even in areas of weak Taliban presence consider that the Taliban are knowledgeable of every thing that occurs.13 The Taliban for positive declare to have an intelligence presence in all provinces of Afghanistan.
Nevertheless, intelligence stays necessary for the Taliban, as they search to penetrate the cities on a higher scale than they’ve achieved thus far. Frontal assaults on the cities have been tried by the Taliban in 2015-16, however they might not achieve the face of swift
MAP 1: PRESENCE OF INTELLIGENCE DEPARTMENTS OF THE QUETTA, MASHHAD, NORTH AND RASOOL SHURAS AS OF 2017
intervention by US air belongings. Already throughout 2016 the Taliban have shifted in the direction of decrease profile infiltration techniques, as a way to get into the goal cities with out being uncovered to retaliation from the air.
Taliban intelligence additionally stays necessary as a result of the totally different shuras of the Taliban are all related to totally different overseas patrons, which in all probability prize the info that the Taliban may be capable of collect.
Throughout 2016 there was a big return in trend of air and drone strike towards Taliban leaders; the greatest recognized sufferer was Amir Akhtar Mohammad Mansur, however he was definitely not the just one. The development is more likely to intensify additional in the second half of 2017 and past, if rumours of an American mini-surge can be confirmed. The air belongings made out there by the Pentagon and CIA to Afghanistan elevated in 2016 already, even when they continue to be approach under the peak reached in 2012-13. This development signifies that counter-intelligence is regaining significance in the Taliban’s eyes; the hunt for spies by no means stopped, however is more likely to intensify, offsetting at the very least partially the decline in focused killings.
We also needs to anticipate a rise in the Taliban’s efforts to infiltrate the Afghan safety forces. Partially that is as a way to perform assaults towards the US advisory groups which may return to the battlefield in vital numbers, but in addition to hold out extra strikes deep inside territory held by the Afghan authorities, concentrating on provincial degree leaders as a way to disrupt the chain of command of the enemy.
Taliban nonetheless name themselves Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan And have an lively web site
Which claims victory:
“The Yr of Collapse of Trump’s Technique
2018 was a yr that started with intense bombardments, army operations and propaganda by the American invaders however all reward belongs to Allah, it ended with the neutralization of one other enemy technique.
The Mujahideen defended valiantly, used their chests as shields towards enemy onslaughts and in the finish on account of divine help, the invaders have been pressured to evaluate their struggle technique.”
All the detailed report above go to Justice… Right here
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